Planning growth?
Can your business afford to grow?
Growth is a numbers decision before it is anything else. Another business, five new trucks, a second site: each one changes your debt, your cash flow and your borrowing capacity for years. We model the move into your actual financials in three cases, best, mid and worst, so you see what it does to the business before you commit. We do not arrange credit. You see what the move looks like before anyone signs anything.
Who this is for
A defined move, and real money on the line
The Growth Scenario Model is for businesses planning a specific step, usually with $100,000 or more of new debt behind it. The gap between what the move costs and what your cash flow can carry is exactly what the model measures.
Buying another business
You run a profitable business and a second one is for sale. The model shows whether the combined group services the purchase debt, what happens to your capacity while you digest it, and when you could go again.
The fleet step-up
Five new trucks doubles your capacity and your repayments. The model shows whether the work you are chasing carries the finance, and what happens if the contract starts late or a truck sits idle.
The second site
The first site works and the second looks obvious. The model shows the fit-out, the ramp-up and the working capital the new site consumes before it starts feeding you, in all three cases.
The big contract
You won the work, and now you need the gear and the people before the first invoice is paid. The model shows the cash gap between spending and getting paid, and the facility shape that covers it without strangling the business.
The three cases
Best case, mid case, worst case
All three cases run off the same drivers, so they are honestly comparable. Each one tells you something different, and the worst case is where the model earns its fee.
Best case
The move performs. Revenue arrives as pitched, the debt clears ahead of schedule, and the model shows what capacity opens up for the next move, and when. Growth compounds when you can see the next step early.
Mid case
The realistic run. Revenue builds slower than the pitch, costs arrive on time, and the ramp-up takes longer than anyone hoped. The model shows whether the debt still services and what your covenant headroom looks like year by year.
Worst case
Revenue stalls, rates rise, a contract falls over. The model shows where the pressure hits first, how much buffer you have, and the point at which the position needs to change. You decide the response now, while things are calm, not mid-crisis.
What it settles
The questions the model answers
Every growth decision turns on a handful of questions that gut feel cannot settle. The model answers them with your own numbers, before the commitment is made.
- Can we afford the trucks if the contract starts three months late?
- Does buying the second business cap our borrowing for the next two years, or open it up?
- How much working capital does the new site consume before it starts feeding the group?
- At what point in the worst case do we act, and what is the move when we get there?
- If the growth lands, when does capacity open up for the next step?
- Which shape of facility carries the move: one loan, staged tranches, or a mix?
How it works
Five steps from idea to answer
1
Send the move and the numbers
The business's last two years of financials, statements for existing facilities, and the move itself: the price, the quotes, the contract, the franchise disclosure. A free scoping call first confirms the model is worth buying. Sometimes it is not, and we say so.
2
Assumptions, agreed
A working session with you, and your accountant or advisors if you want them there, to set the drivers for all three cases. Every assumption is anchored to your trading history, your contracts or independent data. Nothing is anchored to hope.
3
The build
Three full runs through profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow, over a multi-year horizon, with the debt layered in and covenants tested year by year in each case.
4
The written read
What each case does to servicing, headroom and future borrowing capacity, which facility shapes hold up, and the pressure points in the worst case with the response set out in advance.
5
The debrief, and the workbook is yours
Nicholas scopes your matter, reviews every finding and takes your debrief call. The inputs stay editable, so the model keeps working after the decision is made.
What you get
- Everything in the Debt Capacity Assessment
- The growth move modelled in: an acquisition, new vehicles or equipment, a fit-out or a second site
- Three-way modelling across profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow, over a multi-year horizon
- Best case, mid case and worst case, each with covenant headroom year by year
- The capacity path: what each scenario does to your future borrowing capacity
- Assumptions agreed with you and your advisors, evidenced against your trading history
- A written read on all three cases, and a debrief call with Nicholas
Why the fee is different
One facility is a test. Growth is a build.
The Debt Capacity Assessment tests one proposed facility against today's position, for $1,850. The Growth Scenario Model is a materially bigger build: three full scenario runs across profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow, over a multi-year horizon, with the debt layered in and the capacity path mapped in each case.
It includes the Debt Capacity Assessment, so the base work is never paid for twice. And like every fee on the site, it is fixed, scoped in writing before engagement, and not contingent on what the analysis concludes.
$4,950 · 10 business days
It works
Growth that was modelled before it was funded
Two matters where the growth case was built from evidence and stress-tested before any lender saw it.
The second, much larger site
Franchise operators only months into their first store wanted a second, materially larger one, and a major bank had already said no. The growth case was built from evidence the system already held: the network's centralised sales reporting, BAS lodgements and the target store's long trading history, then stress-tested at a conservative rate with roughly a 20% revenue buffer before cover broke.
The finance approved and the larger site secured. Full case study
The operator going again
An experienced operator who had just sold one site wanted an established restaurant franchise on the Central Coast, after a non-bank lender and the major banks had all declined it. The group servicing workbook consolidated the business and personal position, adopted income conservatively and sensitised repayments above the offered rate.
Servicing passed with a clear surplus, and the site was acquired. Full case study
Matters anonymised and figures materially altered. Outcomes depend on individual circumstances and lender criteria. Scenarios show how a position moves under different conditions; they are not a prediction, and no scenario is a promise of future performance or of any approval.
Growth Scenario Model · $4,950 · 10 business days
Fixed fee, no contingency, GST excluded. It includes the Debt Capacity Assessment, and if the numbers say the move does not work, that is the answer you get, for the same fee.
Just testing one facility, not a whole move? The Debt Capacity Assessment is $1,850 and 5 business days: the same workbook, one proposed facility, today's position.
And if the move becomes a lender submission, the analysis flows straight into the lender submission packs, because the earnings case is already built.
Common questions
Businesses planning a defined move with real money behind it, usually $100,000 or more of new debt: buying another business, adding vehicles or equipment, opening a second site, or gearing up for a large contract. If the move is small or simple enough that the full model is not worth buying, we say so on the scoping call and point you at the Debt Capacity Assessment instead.
In a working session with you, and your accountant or advisors if you want them there. All three cases run off the same set of drivers, so they are honestly comparable, and every assumption is anchored to your trading history, your contracts or independent data. The best case is plausible, not fantasy; the worst case is uncomfortable, not apocalyptic. Nothing is anchored to hope.
Then you have learned the most valuable thing the model can tell you, while it is still cheap to know. Sometimes the answer is wait, stage the move differently, or do not do it at all. The written read sets out the pressure points and the changes that would move the answer, and the fee is the same whichever way the analysis lands. You are paying for the answer, not for a particular answer.
Because it is a materially bigger build. The assessment tests one proposed facility against today's position. The Growth Scenario Model runs your whole position three times, through profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow, over a multi-year horizon, with the debt layered in and covenant headroom mapped year by year in each case. It includes the assessment, so the base work is never paid for twice.
Yes. The model is built the way a commercial credit team reads one, the inputs stay editable, and the documents are yours to take to any broker or lender. If the move becomes a finance application, the analysis flows straight into the lender submission packs because the earnings case is already built.
No. We do not arrange credit and we are not a credit representative. Finance applications are handled by The Lending Lab Pty Ltd, a separate broking business, with the relationship disclosed in writing; its broking minimums are $500,000 with property security, or $1,000,000 without. Below those minimums, you or your own broker take the documents to the lender. At or above them, The Lending Lab can handle the application, and a fee discount may apply when it is engaged on the same matter.